The Research Roundup: September 2026 (This issue was generated afterwards from sources that only expose recent items, so its coverage is partial. It is a backfill, not an issue published at the time. Its summaries and tags are machine-generated from titles and abstracts and were reviewed by Mustafa Harun Sendur on 4 November 2026; corrections are marked on each paper. Except for the 1 paper, which has been only partly checked by a person: Firm Balance Sheet Liquidity, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Investment Dynamics.) 1. [DM] Estimating Yield Impacts of Treasury Demand and Supply Changes Federal Reserve Board, IFDP · 18 September 2026 · Working paper https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/103792.html The paper builds a demand-system model to measure how U.S. Treasury supply and demand shifts affect yields, estimating sectoral elasticities with instrumental variables. It finds the market is now more price-sensitive, with a $100 billion supply increase raising five-year yields by about 3 basis points. - Yield sensitivity has risen as foreign official investors’ share fell and hedge funds’ share grew - A $100 billion increase in Treasury supply lifts five-year yields by roughly 3 basis points - Investor-base shifts explain a large share of past yield movements - The framework can evaluate policy scenarios like foreign sales or Fed balance-sheet actions Why it matters: Policymakers and market participants can use the model to gauge how large Treasury issuances or changes in investor composition may move yields, informing debt-issuance strategy and monetary-policy balance-sheet decisions. 2. [DM] Monetary policy transmission by securitising banks European Central Bank Working Papers · 22 September 2026 · Working paper https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3289~670b45de09.en.pdf The paper examines how bank securitisation influences the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area, finding that securitising banks adjust credit supply more strongly to policy shocks than non-securitising banks. The stronger response stems from expanded lending capacity and greater sensitivity of investors to policy conditions, especially for synthetic securitisations. - Securitising banks cut lending more after a monetary tightening than matched non-securitising banks. - The effect is larger for loans to safer borrowers with longer maturities. - Synthetic securitisations drive most of the stronger response via significant risk transfers. - Firms cannot fully offset tighter credit by switching to other banks. Why it matters: Policymakers and market participants should note that securitisation can amplify the impact of rate changes on credit supply, affecting loan availability and risk pricing in the euro area banking sector. 3. [DM] Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas · 22 September 2026 · Working paper https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/103848.html The paper builds a multi-region New Keynesian model and uses state-level import penetration data to estimate U.S. regional Phillips curves over 1976-2017. It finds that greater import exposure flattens the Phillips curve, accounting for roughly 40 percent of the flattening, and estimates that it lowered inflation by about 0.17 percentage point annually between 1976 and 2008. - Greater import exposure leads to significantly flatter state-level Phillips curves. - Rising import exposure accounts for roughly 40 percent of the flattening of the U.S. Phillips curve over 1976-2017. - The paper estimates that increased import exposure reduced U.S. inflation by about 0.17 percentage point annually between 1976 and 2008. Why it matters: Understanding how trade exposure alters inflation dynamics informs the trade-off faced by policymakers when setting interest rates. 4. [DM] Shipping to America Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 21 September 2026 · Working paper https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/103785.html The paper builds route-level measures of capacity for U.S.-bound container ships and embeds them in a general-equilibrium model to assess welfare effects of shipping disruptions. It finds that recent utilization losses were 20-40 percentage points and that the 2021 West Coast crisis and 2023-2024 Red Sea attacks reduced output by 0.69% and 0.35% respectively. - Utilization losses during disruptions were 20-40 percentage points, appearing months before visible congestion. - The 2021 West Coast crisis cost 0.69% of output; the 2023-2024 Red Sea attacks cost 0.35% of output. - Naval protection of Red Sea shipping yielded 0.04-0.08% output benefits at a 0.02% fiscal cost. - Tariffs can decongest taxed routes, potentially offsetting their usual welfare loss. Why it matters: Policymakers and market participants should note that, in the paper's model, shipping disruptions carry sizeable output losses. The paper estimates the benefits and fiscal cost of naval protection of Red Sea shipping, and separately finds that tariffs can decongest the routes they tax, which can offset their usual welfare cost. 5. [Transversal] Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates NBER Working Papers · September 2026 · Working paper https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/35766.html The paper derives a condition that expected and realized interest rates must satisfy however expectations are formed, and uses it to decompose the sensitivity of long-term yields to the short-term interest rate into contributions from expectations and risk premia. It finds that, for short- and medium-maturity bonds, this sensitivity is driven primarily by movements in expectations rather than risk premia, and documents systematic wedges between how expectations of long-term yields and of shorter-maturity yields respond. - For short- and medium-maturity bonds, the sensitivity of long-term yields to the short-term interest rate is driven primarily by movements in expectations rather than risk premia. - There are systematic wedges between the response of long-term yield expectations and that of expectations of shorter-maturity yields over the same window. - The authors argue that these wedges reflect structural inconsistency in subjective expectations across maturities and forecast horizons. Why it matters: Understanding how expectations versus risk premia shape the term structure helps policymakers and market participants gauge the drivers of yield movements without assuming rational expectations. 6. [EM] Borrowing in the Shadow of China NBER Working Papers · September 2026 · Working paper https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/35767.html The paper builds a quantitative sovereign debt model in which borrowers cannot default on China's subsidized loans to emerging economies but may face sudden rollover demands. It argues that this structure disciplines borrowing: governments may choose to deleverage from private markets when Chinese inflows arrive. It also studies a scenario in which China offers loans to induce a borrower's exit from international debt markets and one in which Chinese funding is suddenly withdrawn. - In the model, borrowers cannot default on the Chinese loans but may face sudden rollover demands, and the authors argue that this bilateral rollover risk without default risk disciplines recipient countries' borrowing on international markets. - In the model, rollover-prone Chinese loans expose market debt to dilution risk, and governments may choose to deleverage from private markets when Chinese inflows arrive. - Market debt and bond yield dynamics in the data are consistent with this disciplining effect. - The paper studies two scenarios, a bloc-formation exercise in which China offers loans to induce exit from international debt markets and an optimal exposure problem under a sudden retrenchment of Chinese funding. Why it matters: Understanding how China-funded sovereign debt influences market borrowing and yields helps policymakers assess financial stability risks in emerging markets. 7. [Transversal] Zombie firms in emerging Asia: domestic and cross border implications BIS Working Papers · September 2026 · Working paper https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1375.html The paper uses firm-bank linked data from ten Asian emerging markets (2005-2021) to examine zombie firms. It finds zombie numbers have risen, they hurt domestic performance and growth, and exposure to them lowers inflation and growth in advanced economies via global value chains. - Zombie firms in Asian EMEs increased significantly over the past 15 years; weak banks' evergreening, the extending or renewing of loans, helped sustain them. - Domestically, zombie prevalence reduces firm performance, crowds out healthy firms, and lowers inflation and GDP growth. - Exposure to Asian EM zombie firms cuts inflation and growth in advanced economies through GVC and import-price channels. - Cross-border bank linkages play little role in these spillovers. Why it matters: Policymakers and market participants should note that zombie firms in emerging Asia can lower inflation and growth in advanced economies, mainly through global value chains and import prices. 8. [DM] Firm Balance Sheet Liquidity, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Investment Dynamics Journal of Political Economy · 22 September 2026 · Journal article https://doi.org/10.1086/744130 The paper builds a heterogeneous-firm model of monetary policy transmission to investment, with financial constraints, debt issuance costs and different returns on cash and borrowing, and matches key moments of U.S. firm-level data. A counterfactual analysis shows that the rise in U.S. firms' liquid asset holdings over recent decades has significantly increased the relevance of balance sheet liquidity in monetary transmission. - Firms' balance sheet liquidity matters for how monetary policy transmits to investment. - The model includes debt issuance costs and different returns on cash and on borrowing. - The rise in U.S. firms' liquid asset holdings has increased the relevance of balance sheet liquidity in monetary transmission. Why it matters: Understanding how firm liquidity influences the policy-investment link helps policymakers gauge the effectiveness of rate changes on real activity. These 8 papers were selected from 145 screened across 29 sources (top economics journals, central banks, the IMF, the BIS and research networks). Journal of Political Economy: 6 paper(s) were left out because no abstract was available. Browse every paper and past issue: https://mhsendur-research-roundup.pages.dev/